As I think we all suspected that he would. As with all French elections in living memory, the big question is whether Sarko really has the nerve to take on the vested interests. I think he will talk a good fight, but do little more than tinker at the margins, in part because I suspect there just is not the will among the French political class to pick fights with the unions, the fonctionnaires
and the rest of the apparat. Also, Sarko is a comparatively young man and doubtless fancies his chance of winning a second term in 2012. If he does succeed in that I would suspect that there might be a touch more audace
from a Sarko presidency.
As to Royal, her 'there will be riots
' etc speech was about as misjudged as Churchill's 'road to serfdom' speech in '45. If Sarko does have the will to make substantial changes in the way France is run, he is in a very good position - the Left will probably engage in another bout of fratricide (or should that be sororicide?
) , Bayrou's would be centrist project looks to have been still born, and both Le Pen's lot and the extreme Left look to be fatally wounded. I would not be at all surprised if the Left re-aligns itself German style, with the PS splitting into a far left party that makes common cause with the Trotskyites and the other loons, with the more realistic faction adapting itself to changing times.
Le Monde has a nifty graphic showing the results:Libération
has a Flash graphic showing the voting in the two rounds, and it is instructive that département
, France was again split along very clear lines - Royal's best showings were in the North West, South West and the centre, with only two département
s, Pas de Calais and Val de Marne gained from outside the first round's approximate comfort zone.
Meanwhile, one of the French blogs
has a sneak preview of Sarko's cabinet, which suggests Cecilia Sarkozy as PM, Raffarin as minister for truth and common sense, Johnny Hallyday as minister for artists persecuted by the tax authorities etc etc. Ho ho ho...
Labels: Elections., France