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If Brown loses Glasgow East....

Monday, July 07, 2008
For the sheer joy of psephology, I have been rooting around in the electoral stats at Richard Kimber's PolSci resources page at Keele University, and have come up with a list of the pigs with red rosettes that would be left if Labour were to lose Glasgow East by one vote.

By my reckoning, there would be some 40 Labour MPs left, all having majorities of 13,600 or more. However, it is not a list awash with household names, those that would definitely (?) register with the man in the street being Skinner, D, Brown, G, Blunkett, D, Reid, J, Byers, S, Vaz, K and Cooper, Y.

Wonks and other obsessives will know of Chris Bryant - no sniggering at the back -, Eric Joyce, Ian McCartney (short trollish character, yes?), Fraser 'the undertaker' Kemp, Andy 'how much mascara are you sporting?' Burnham and Peter Kilfoyle. I suspect that John Cummings of Easington, Joe Benton of Bootle and Francis Hywel of Aberavon can use public transport without being harassed by voters from outside their constituencies.

I'd like to see the Dour One knock up a shadow cabinet from that rather unpromising timber.

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Londongrad and Helengrad

Tuesday, June 03, 2008
News from the Antipodes:

"Helen Clark today turned her fire on National's refusal to reveal its major policies after the three latest polls showed Labour trailing badly.

The Prime Minister claimed the polls would not show the true level of Government support until the National Party had revealed its policies and said how it would pay for them." Source.

At the risk of being thought a cynic, doesn't that particular play smack of how our own dear Labour party responds to opinion poll slippage. Might the Dour One or one of his homunculi be counselling the besieged Socialist Tsarina of New Zealand?

Mind you, they would break out the fair trade champagne at Victoria Street if they were registering 36% in the polls.



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Making the same anouncement twice

Friday, May 30, 2008
As is well known, ministers in this government would make drums out of the skins of their own mothers the louder to sing their own praises, and announce the same 'announcement' every six months in the hope that the gullible and the complicit will report it as new money.

So much for the history lesson. Now the same press release is attributed to two different departments on the same day:

So DEFRA has this to say - "A raft of new Government measures to help vulnerable consumers and especially the elderly make their homes warmer and more energy efficient are announced today". It goes on to quote the Wickser, Woolas and O'Brien.

And the DTI BERR has this to say: "A raft of new Government measures to help vulnerable consumers and especially the elderly make their homes warmer and more energy efficient are announced today". Guess who it quotes.....

Both were released into the wild at one past midnight according to the DEFRA and BERR websites. However, the ever useful thegovernmentsays.com tells a somewhat different story, detecting BERR's release at 3.12 and Defra's at 4.44.

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Loose lips sink ships

Friday, May 16, 2008
I am much obliged to A, the internet, B, News Group and C, big-mouthed Tamsin Kneafsey-Dunwoody for this interview:

TKD: "She's an old-style campaigner, whereas I've learnt newer techniques in terms of targeting key voters and working out what the result is going to be....The thing she's drilled into me is the importance of the constituency. Both of us see that it's important to have a relationship with the electorate that is based on the person as much as the party. Watching the way she did it has helped me to realise the importance of building up your base". (She has no connection to the place and was parachuted in)

GD: "I do wish that Tamsin had come to Westminster rather than the Welsh Assembly. I'm not supposed to say that - it's the one thing we really disagree on. This is the power base where she could have made a contribution. She will contribute very well down there, but it is a smaller arena. So I don't like her decision on that - but I do understand it".

One might note that Dunwoody fille was not always so ashamed of her husband's name, and googling Tamsin Kneafsey or Tamsin Kneafsey Dunwoody lands right on the money.

So, more findings:

"Asked for her aspirations for the assembly she wants to continue to improve the economy and raise the profile of the assembly in Wales". Source. This was when she lived in a part of Crewe called Haverfordwest

Apparently she is in Burke's, although I only have that on hearsay.

Meanwhile, on Betfair the Tories are at 1.2 to win the by-election and TKD is at 5.6.

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And if Brown resigns for 'health reasons'?

Monday, May 12, 2008
I cannot see Brown willingly letting go of the brass ring, having finally got his greasy mitts on it, but should Straw and the other eminences grise of the party persuade him to do so, there is the potential for a fearfully long interregnum while the People's Party grinds into action. It does beg the question as to who would be running the show while Brown is locked away in a sanatorium?

Unlike Blair, Brown has foregone making the deputy leader of the Labour Party the deputy PM, although I imagine that Harman would be most keen to insist that she should become the PM pending a leadership election should Brown be pushed. Straw would probably present himself as a safe pair of hands, and if truth be told, he would be the sensible choice for that caretaker role. As with Beckett in '94 or whenever it was, both Straw and Harman would regard the stopgap role as a dress rehearsal for the real thing.

As has been noted elsewhere, the Tories do regicide rather better than Labour, but the Hague leadership rules would make the process of replacing a sitting Tory PM messy and drawn out too. While Brown could name a deputy PM - and there should be as clear cut a line of succession as there is in the US - I do not imagine that he will, as that would be an admission that he is indeed mortal.

So, perhaps I should be careful what I wish for, although if Straw were in charge one might at least expect a degree of competence.

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Economic acts between consenting adults

Monday, April 21, 2008
I'm all in favour of them, frankly but this government is not:

"The Government is now looking to event organisers, promoters and their ticket agents to work together to find new ways of making sure that tickets are properly distributed without fans routinely paying over-the-odds. These improvements can happen without the burden of new regulation, by criminalising fans who want to buy tickets for sold-out events or sell tickets that they cannot use".

Conceivably the people at Pravda Central, or Andy 'just how much eyeliner are you wearing?' Burnham in whose name this went out got their words a bit derrière about visage and missed out an 'or' but why should they be given the benefit of the doubt when the rest of the content is almost as dispiritingly illiberal, ill-thought out and generally ghastly.

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Good news, everybody - the death of socialism

Thursday, April 03, 2008
Swedish Social Democratic Party Leader Mona Sahlin: '"If developments continue, this party won’t exist in 10 to 15 years"... The Social Democrats lost 19,000 members last year. The 16 percent drop is the largest in more than 10 years...Membership has been cut in half since the 1990s'. Source.

A Swedish model I would counsel our own dear Labour Party to copy closely.

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The trouble with point scoring

Monday, March 10, 2008
Wading through an extraordinarily predictable debate on women in Parliament, I came across this:

"Lynda Waltho (Stourbridge) (Lab): I am impressed with the right hon. Lady’s words, but will she expand on the figures? How many of those selected women will be candidates in winnable Tory seats? How many of them will be normal working-class women who do not have Ashcroft money or are millionaires in their own right?".

And what is there to be said of the extraordinarily undistinguished MP for Stourbridge, and almost certain one term MP (majority of 407.) before obscurity proffers a hand? Interesting too that she seems to think society divides women into horny-handed daughters of toil and self made millionaires.

Anyway, doubtless numerous teachers and wonks will be pleased / miffed that she considers such lines of work to be authentically proletarian, those having been her previous lines of work. And what does the UK Polling Report have to say about Stourbridge:

"Stourbridge is a suburban dormitory area on the edge of the West Midlands conurbation - while the seat is mainly urban, it borders onto open countryside just over the border in South Staffordshire. Largely white, lower middle-class, owner-occupied former council houses and large scale new-build private estates, especially in Amblecote".

So I can only presume that Waltho will bigging up her prole 'credentials' when touring the large scale new-build private estates etc and stirring up class war at every available opportunity.

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The least surprising event of the year

Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Less so than the religious affiliation of Benedict XVI, the personal hygiene choices of Ursus arctos horribilis and wrestling being fixed.

Don't believe me?

Here goes:

Lord Hylton asked Her Majesty's Government: What sums have been paid in social benefits in respect of second or subsequent concurrent wives or of their children since 1997?

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Work and Pensions (Lord McKenzie of Luton): The information is not recorded centrally and could be obtained only at disproportionate cost.

How very, very convenient.

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After Northern Rock, what next?

Monday, February 18, 2008

Facetiousness to one side, the theft of a bank by the state, purely to ingratiate the Labour party with its client vote in the North East is beyond disgraceful. When I heard the news yesterday, it
would be no distortion to say I felt physically nauseous. Note that there were no calls for Barings to be baled out that I have been able to find, but then again there probably were too few potential Labour voters working in settlements and admin for 'the People's Party' to think it worthwhile wooing them.

In the meantime, I look forward to Northern Rock terminating its sponsorship of the Barcodes and other Tyneside sporting luminaries at the earliest opportunity, and for an end to NE specific corporate philanthropy.

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Walking the walk and talking the talk....

Tuesday, January 29, 2008
From Hansard: Anne Moffat (Labour, East Lothian) "To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport if he will bring forward legislative proposals to increase levels of transparency of salaries paid by professional football clubs".

Is that Anne 'expenses' Moffat?

Yes, it is:

'Has never voted on a transparent Parliament'.

'Voted very strongly against investigating the Iraq war'

Which, in itself, is not that surprising for lobby fodder. But here is the bit that puts Moffat in the same class for chutzpah as the child who killed his parents but as an orphan begged for clemency:

"Moffat...ran up the highest travel bill of any Westminster politician in 2003/04. ..a breakdown of her expenses has been published after a fierce two-year battle for disclosure. Anne Moffat's record bill was made up of thousands of pounds' worth of first-class rail and air fares, as well as trips to Malta and Portugal. Moffat, however, ran up the highest travel bill of any Westminster politician in 2003/04.The landmark decision to publish the claims may open the floodgates for a spate of other revelations about MPs' allowances. It follows a two-year fight by Green Party activist Michael Collie for publication of Moffat's travel bill. The Labour MP was criticised after billing the taxpayer for nearly £40,000 in travel costs between 2003 and 2004, the highest claim of that year, Her huge bill led to questions being asked about the nature of her claims and prompted Collie to request more details through the Freedom of information Act 2000 (FOI). The UK Parliament's decision to refuse publication of Moffat's claims was overturned by the Information Commissioner, whose judgment was backed earlier this year by the Information Tribunal".

Some people have no shame. Meanwhile, it would look as though her local top league football teams are Hibs and Hearts.

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The 24th of January - an interesting date

Thursday, January 24, 2008
Hain Day is also the day Mandelson resigned in 2001. And, oddly enough, when Leon Brittan resigned in 1986, so maybe 2008 will see another ministerial scalp, on the basis of a closing of seven years in the gap between resignations.

And the day Caligula was assassinated.

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What does the Labour party's shop tell us about Labour?

Thursday, December 13, 2007
Having been shown a rather alarming faux silk scarf that a constituency Tory party has made available (names withheld to protect the guilty ), I decided it was time to see what the 'People's Party' is selling, apart from snake oil. Go to Labour org uk and then drill down, as I am not going to link directly.

Gifts are fairly run of the mill bar a DVD of Broon's speech to conference. Is there anyone alive who would think that the perfect night in would involve unplugging the 'phone, arranging mood lighting and sitting down to watch what even Broon's greatest fans would not say was that great a speech. Doubtless I am wrong, however.

It is when we get to clothing that it starts to get interesting..

Why is the campaigners coat only immediately available in large and extra large (if not John Prescott)? Do they not bother making up smalls and mediums, or has there been a run on them by people the same build as Blears?

What is more, you can have the coat and other items personalised. There is no clear limit on characters, and no boiler plate exclusion as to what one might have included. Options which sprang to mind were 'I am only wearing this because it is cold', and 'don't blame me, I didn't vote for this lot'. Furthermore there is no apparent requirement to be a Labour party member to buy this stuff. I think that there might be scope for a re-run of the Nike 'sweatshop' trainer personalisation shenanigans of 2001.

After further rumination, I think 'Labour for Johnson' or 'Vote Johnson' could be a winner.

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Some number crunching for Jack Straw

Friday, November 30, 2007
"And it's not just a matter of profound irritation but profound anger to everybody involved in the Labour Party, 99.9 per cent recurring, who are completely straight and upstanding". Source

Right-o, let's run the numbers. Apparently, Labour party membership stands at around 177,000.

So, 99.9% gives 177 crooked and prone members.
99.99% gives 18 crooked and prone members.
99.999% gives a mere - and less than credible, given this week's events - 1.8 crooked and prone members.

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Thought for the day...

Wednesday, November 28, 2007
I imagine I am not alone in being thankful that this rabble has not taken up the Lib Dem's bright idea of nationalising Northern Rock.

Jeff Randall's masterpiece of invective in today's Telegraph spells it out beautifully....

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Labour's 18 years in the wilderness - the view from Nairobi

Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Now most of us would think that Labour lost in '79 because of the economy, and blew it in '83 for their wrecked reputation, the Falklands and 'the longest suicide note in history'. '87 and '92 I would put down to the economy / defence and Sheffield / F/U/D respectively.

Not, however, in the reckoning of DDR-educated Raila Odinga, presidential candidate for the Liberal International-affiliated ODM:

"And ODM presidential candidate Mr Raila Odinga on Monday met with over 1,000 former MPs and aspirants seeking the party's ticket, and said there would be no sacred cows and direct nominations for candidates. Raila told the former MPs and the new aspirants to stop believing in propaganda that the Pentagon (not that Pentagon, I think) members would try to influence the nominations in favour of certain individuals. Raila gave the example of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, which had on three occasions lost their quest to win the elections due to interference at the nominations stage". Source.

Well, Nellist and Fields were elected in '83 and Pat Wall in '87, but otherwise I am struggling to come up with members of the extreme left first elected to Parliament in that period. Additions will be gratefully accepted.

(Ahem - Livingstone, Abbott and Corbyn too)

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Who's afraid of Lord Ashcroft?

Thursday, October 25, 2007
Nick Palmer (Lab) Broxtowe - Maj 2,296
Martin Linton (Lab) Battersea - Maj 163


Or so it would seem from quite how strongly they are opposed - out of principle, clearly - to spending in constituencies between elections.

"Martin Linton (Battersea) (Lab): Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is vital to plug this local loophole before politics descends into a mercenary battle to see who can raise the most money? There is an urgent need for a Bill in the Queen’s Speech to extend the current limits on national campaign expenditure to local parties and candidates".


"Dr. Nick Palmer (Broxtowe) (Lab): Is it not clear that the official Opposition are so hooked on their regular injection of funds from the gentleman in the other place that they are not interested in consensus, and that to satisfy the public that democracy is not being bought, we will have to introduce legislation in the next Session?"

And Straw, (Lab) Blackburn, Maj 8,009 (oh well...) seems minded to run with the arguments of Messrs Palmer and Linton. Fancy. While excluding money from trade unions, natch.

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"Constitutional reform has been one of the major achievements of the Government since 1997"

Thursday, October 11, 2007
So says the deeply, deeply odious Keith, or Nigel as he was born, Vaz.

I suppose I should not be surprised that the man has absolutely no shame, given previous entries in his biography, but anyone willing to persevere with the excerpted Hansard quotes on proposals for a written constitution will need a strong stomach.

Having namechecked Magna Carta, he then talks of "a single Bill of Rights and Responsibilities". Which sounds like the kind of thing a primary school teacher might draw up for his or her charges. Bathos exemplified, perhaps.

The quote in the headline continues, "devolution to Scotland (and hasn't that misfired for your party, let alone the Union), Wales (Ditto. Almost) and Northern Ireland (No negotiations with terrorists, eh?), a Mayor and Assembly for London (We shall see. Note no mention of England), the process of removing hereditary peers from the House of Lords (and stuffing it full of placemen and women of less than independent mind), the creation of a Ministry of Justice (changing the nameplate), the creation of a Supreme Court (changing the nameplate), the creation of a body to appoint judges independently, and the incorporation of the European convention on human rights via the Human Rights Act 1998 (Another simply *huge* success) . This has been the collective work of the Government. However, I should like to recognise in particular two Ministers who have been at the forefront of the process—Lord Irvine of Lairg and Lord Falcolner of Thoroton, who were both distinguished Lord Chancellors ( You don't have to suck up to either of them - they are part of the ancien regime and now non-persons)

It gets better, however, "All these reforms have been substantive changes to our unwritten and ancient constitutional tapestry, and have been remarkably successful. Even more remarkable is the lack of attention that these reforms attracted". Does he never read anything other than his bank statements?

And so on, "However, my focus in this debate will be the suggestion by the Prime Minister that we move away from our largely unwritten constitution and towards a single document that codifies the rights and responsibilities of those living in Britain. With reference to other countries with unwritten constitutions, I understand that only New Zealand, Canada and Israel share the United Kingdom’s status".

For a law graduate, he can be remarkably ignorant of the nature of constitutional law. I had always been led to believe that we shared the status of having an unwritten constitution (what he means, I hope, is a constitution that is not contained in a single document. But I doubt it) with our Kiwi and Israeli friends, and a little light googling proves me right and Nigel wrong. Let it also be added to the record that Sudan, North Korea, Burma and various other veritable shangri-las do have single document constitutions. Hands up all who who think that the states without single document constitutions are despotates?

More bathos:

"[The Bill of Rights] was a remarkable text limiting the powers of the monarch and setting out the great freedoms that we as citizens still enjoy today, such as the freedom from cruel and unusual punishments, the freedom of speech in Parliament, the freedom from taxation by royal prerogative, and the freedom to elect Members of Parliament without interference from the sovereign"...."but it is not clear enough to the individual where his or her rights and duties lie, and where the Government’s begin. In an age of concern about antisocial behaviour and crime, we need a document embodying the guiding values that we share as a nation. Above all, a constitution would clarify not only the collective power of the Government, but the powers of a neighbourhood, community group or family to correct antisocial behaviour".

And the ne plus ultra: "Is the Minister ready to be remembered as the Benjamin Franklin of a future British constitution?"

I would go on but I have been overcome with nausea.


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Home Secretary - getting back to where we started from is a triumph

Thursday, September 27, 2007
"And we are making progress: Violent crime at its lowest for a decade". Source

Being liberal, I will pretend that I believe whichever set of crime figures the government puts its name to this week And let me think - just which party was in power in September 1997? And who has been the MP for Redditch through out that period, so she is unlikely to have forgotten?

Isn't this government wonderful?

(And this exciting low takes us to circa two and a half million reported violent crimes per annum against circa 40m English and Welsh adults. So you only have a one in 16 chance of being a victim).

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Harriet Harman to spend more time with her bank account?

Wednesday, September 26, 2007
That would seem to be a reasonable inference to take from her comments to the Labour Party's conference:

"The law should be changed to allow all black short lists in parliamentary constituencies with large ethnic minorities, Harriet Harman said" (Daily Telegraph, print only, page 14).

A bit of digging shows that that Camberwell & Peckham, HH's constituency, had the following ethnic breakdown according to the 2001 census:

White: 54%
Black: 35.2%
Asian: 3.3%
Mixed: 4.1%
Other: 3.4%

So come on Hattie - surely a high earning, St Pauls-educated, law degree-holding, paper QC-holding white woman married to a high earning white man cannot hope to represent the good people of Camberwell & Peckham, can she?


I look forward to her applying for the Chiltern Hundreds later today.

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