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The US update

Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Zogby's polling suggests that the best VP candidate for Obama is Colin Powell, with him delivering a net positive of 32% more likely to vote Dem, compared to a net 5% for Hillary Clinton. Bill Richardson is the only other to give a net boost, at 5%. Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine (who?) are net negative of 4-6%. I suspect that the Powell effect is exagerrated due to a reluctance on the part of pollees to snub an all black ticket. Given that CP would not run for the Big One, I doubt he would want to be the younger man's spear carrier, as after all, 'The vice-presidency isn't worth a pitcher of warm [urine]' as John Nance Garner once put it.

Over at GOP HQ, McCain's best bets are Romney at +15% and Huckabee at +14%. Joe Lieberman does little at +3%. Others are net negative.

Given past presidential elections in my lifetime, I would not be surprised if the VP candidates come as surprises come convention time.

As to the electoral college, the very wonderful Electoral College site (it helped me win a few sucker bets on Bush last time) aggregates state polls and has OB at 207 strong to JM's 83 strong. Including weak and barely, it comes out at 292 OB, 219 JM, with 27 dead heats. 270 are needed for the brass ring. Geographically OB has the West Coast, NE, Great Lakes bar Ohio plus Hawaii, Montana, Colorado and New Mexico. McCain has the South and the Mid-West / Rockies bar MT, CO and NM. Indiana and Pennsylvania are worth 32 votes and are weak for OB, while Florida and North Carolina (42) are weak McCain.

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Reading the electoral tea leaves for Croydon

Tuesday, May 13, 2008
I have just got hold of the ward data for the London elections, and judging from the Assembly vote, Gavin Barwell ought to walk Croydon Central at the next general election. I make Steve O'Connell's share in the Croydon Central wards 46.6%, to the 25.5% for Labour.

The seat is notionally Labour, given boundary changes, but we won it in 2005. Pelling's share of the vote was 40.8% to Davies's 40.6%. The Lib Dems were squeezed from 13% to 9.2%. UKIP and the Greens fared better, share-wise, than at the general election.

Croydon North looks to be safe for the Wickser - 42% for Labour, down from 54%. The much mocked Jason Hadden should be aiming for 27%, up from our 22% last time.

That Richard Ottaway will retain Croydon South cannot be in doubt.

More of this sort of thing for other marginal seats on request.

Gavin - should you (or any of your people) read this, do something about your gavin4croydon site - it only makes page three of the googling of Gavin Barwell. *Not* good. I cheated and tried Gavin Barwell Croydon Central, and that makes page one. Just.

Update

Further peering at the darjeeling suggests that Carshalton & Wallington would be lost by the Yellow Peril - Brake's 40.3% at the election compares to 31.4% this time, with the Tory candidate securing 39.8% in May, compared to 37.8% in 2005. (Re-worded for clarity)

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Do liberal journalists, or their editors, engage in basic fact checking?

Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Not Johan Hari and whoever is running The 'Independent' this week:

"At last – a solution to my Boris blues! I have just forced myself to read the detailed election stats from last Thursday. It seems the media cliché is true: it’s the angry, whiter outer suburbs that elected Boris, out of rage with the congestion charge and council tax. Boris will forever be the mayor of Zones Four to Six, the chief executive of Watford and Bromley and Amersham".

Of those three places, only Bromley is part of Greater London and was able to vote Boris. Watford and Amersham are not within zones 1-6 either.

Further, results are not available at a depth greater than constituency level, and the only constituency which is wholly within zones 1-2 is West Central, also known as Westminster, K&C and Hammersmith and Fulham - 54.8% for Boris. The seat that gave Livingstone his strongest showing - City & East - stretches all the way to deeply chic Dagenham, which is zone 5.

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"A rightwards swing on a European scale"

Sunday, May 04, 2008
That's what a professor at Science Po in Gay Paree is calling it, noting that of the 11 general elections in Europe since 2007, the Right has retained or taken power except in Spain.

And there's more:

"In countries where the [far?] Left is strong...social democratic / socialist have suffered significant reverses. That is the backdrop to the election in Rome and London". Further details at Le Monde.

Maybe Broon should have used that as part of his grab bag of excuses in his interview with Marr this morning.

Meanwhile, some descriptions of Boris from the French dailies:

"This extravagant figure of the Right....this painted bird" Le Monde. (L'oiseau bariolé is also a novel and a Paris gay bar. Ho hum)

"Eccentric Conservative". Le Figaro

"Eccentric" La Tribune.

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Just briefly....

Saturday, May 03, 2008
Now is the time for gloating, pointing and jeering at the Left in general. Intruding on private grief would be more than reasonable too. I know how they felt on that grim day in '97 and equally well know how they feel now.

While waking up to a Tory councillor, a Tory Council, a Tory GLA member, a Tory City Hall, Mayor and MP is pretty sweet, the bit I am *really* looking forward to is the wailing and gnashing off teeth from the likes of Toynbee and Alibhai-Brown over the next few days. One to savour, I think.

Meanwhile, of the five candidates I know or at the very least have bumped into, hearty congrats to Boris (natch), James Cleverly in B&B and Steve O'Connell in Croydon & Sutton, and commiserations to Andy Jennings in Greenwich & Lewisham and Matthew Laban in Haringey & Enfield.

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The BBC coverage...

Friday, May 02, 2008
I have been watching the BBC coverage for a few hours, shooting the breeze with sundry mates via IM, gobbing off on Guido's chat room etc etc. Anyway, being lucid just briefly:

WHY in the name of all the gods I cannot believe in are the BBC running with a sub-adult presentation of the results? ANYONE watching results at 2.11 in the morning is either channel hopping from the home shopping channels, or more likely is a hopeless political obsessive who is jumping up and down watching the results. And the diamonique window lickers do not care if the presentation would be insulting to viewers of the Teletubbies, and the HPOs do not need to be patronises by this idiotic presentation of a serious news story. Like sensible people everywhere, I swear at the Today programme, Newsnight etc etc and am utterly used to the institutional leftism of the BBC (I would be watching Sky, but my host has limited channel access), but even Labour toadies want to be treated as though they have functioning brains, yes? On the basis of this debacle, we are deep into licence revocation territory.

I would go on, but drink has been taken.


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Hillary in Sarajevo - new footage

Friday, March 28, 2008


All very impressive, but apparently she would be prepared to exit NAFTA if 'reforms' she seeks are not accepted.

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Joanna Lumley running for the London Assembly

Thursday, March 27, 2008
Chaps of a certain age will visualise La Lumley with that shocking 70s haircut that she sported in 'The New Avengers' (the last British series to be networked in the States, apparently) , others will think of her as in that dire comedy with the one of French & Saunders not married to Lenny Henry. Doubtless there are other options, but there she is in the list for the English Democrats, at #9.

It would appear that there are two Lumleys, and this one looks to be quite youthful, so I would think that either her parents refused to have a television or had a sadistic streak. Unless she changed it herself, of course.

I think it is fair to say she will not get elected this time.

Elsewhere, note 'Chris Forster Former local authority auditor and accountant, now working as a psychic and psychic event organiser'. One would think that the tea leaves, auras or whatever would tell him he is wasting his time. Maybe they already have. It would be selfish not to haul out (again) the tale of Kelvin Mackenzie's letter sacking The Sun's astrologer - "As you will already know..."

More later, if more comedy is detected, and a tip of the hat to Justin for sending me the link and letting me have first crack at mocking it. No names, but he tells me that one candidate lost a job for accessing kiddie pr0n at work and another has a similar taste for forbidden fruit.

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The courage of one's convictions

Monday, March 10, 2008
Nosing around the Standard's pages on the London assembly elections, it would appear that the London Greens are going to be in a terrible pickle come the 2nd of May, as Sian Berry, its candidate for the mayoralty is also on its London-wide top up list - in fourth. Given that they had three top up members between 2000 and 2004, four greens in the assembly - horrifying though that prospect is - is not quite within the realms of science fiction. Maybe they will just meditate until the problem goes away.

Similarly, the People's Party also seems to lack confidence in the electability of its slate, in that its top up list is the same as its list of seat candidates. Given that Felicia Nicolette Gavron is NOT going to win Barnet & Camden if the Socialists could not last time round, this seems a wise, if somewhat gutless precaution. I wonder why she has tired of Enfield & Haringey, her old stomping ground

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A germane comment from Ms Greer

"I can't see that Hillary would appeal to feminists because, why is she there? She is there because she is Bill's wife, and it's a bit useless to pretend, 'Oh, it's because of her wonderful job as a senator', and all that," she said. I just don't think it's true. When she had a big job in government, she blew it."

"I don't like Hillary because she's so bossy and cold and manipulative and stuff".

Amen sister. More here.

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Run Nader, run

Thursday, January 31, 2008
"Veteran political activist and consumer champion Ralph Nader, blamed by the Democrats for costing them the tight 2000 elections, said Wednesday he was mulling a 2008 bid for the White House". Source.

Go for it Ralph. More at naderexplore80.org.

And with that, I'm off to bet the farm on McCain.

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Keeping a sense of proportion

Wednesday, January 30, 2008
'The New York chapter of The National Organization for Women accused Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of betraying women with his endorsement of Barack Obama..."Women have just experienced the ultimate betrayal," NOW's New York State chapter said... "Senator Kennedy's endorsement of Hillary Clinton's opponent in the Democratic presidential primary campaign has really hit women hard". Source

I can think of at least one woman who suffered a rather more serious betrayal, and was hit rather harder, by Ted Kennedy. Her name was Mary Jo Kopechne.

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Fried squirrel.....

Thursday, January 17, 2008
A favourite of Republican hopeful Mike Huckabee, apparently.

The video is worth the click, and prepare to discover how one can cook the North American Tree Rat when lacking a conventional oven:


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Quiz time - name the Iowa caucus winners

Friday, January 11, 2008
Easy, eh?

Well, less than half of the Americans polled by Pew in the immediate aftermath of the vote could name both. Republicans were better able to name both than were Democrats at 59 to 44%. Awareness largely followed levels of political engagement, education and age.

The most amusing finding is that the success rate for those claiming to be following the campaign trail 'very closely' was 67%. Were I pollster, I would find it a struggle not to mock the other 33%. At length.

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Memo to Hillary

Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The last Democrat to win the New Hampshire primary and go on to take the White House was Jimmy Carter in 1976....

There's a virtual round of applause to anyone who can mentally picture '92 winner, Paul Tsongas.

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NRA more important than Barbra Streisand shocker...

Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Or so it would seem. Zogby polled the American public as to which endorsements would prove most influential for various constituencies (second amendment enthusiasts, show tune fans etc etc....) and came up with the following:

Endorsement Potential in Terms of Voters

Organization/ More Likely In Terms of Registered
Individual To Support Eligible Voters Voters*
Nat'l Rifle Assoc. 27 % 56 million 40 million
Bill Clinton 25 % 52 million 37 million
George W. Bush 23 % 48 million 34 million
AFL-CIO 16 % 33 million 24 million
Oprah Winfrey 9 % 19 million 13 million
Nat'l Council of LaRaza 5 % 10 million 7 million
Barbra Streisand 4 % 8 million 6 million

The National Council of LaRaza looks to be a Hispanic version of the NAACP.

More here, registration required.

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Dirty tricks, Taiwan style

The Kuomintang, traditionally the ruling party in Taiwan, but presently out of power, as the Democratic Progressive Party holds the reins, thinks the election might get dirty:

Feared tactics range from the pedestrian - "the DPP might attempt to attract votes with empty promises" (Erm, hello? This is a new technique?) and "[it might] harass KMT candidates with a barrage of never-ending telephone calls to their campaign headquarters" to the rather overblown - "The DPP could also assassinate Ma or Hsieh and then postpone the election".

After all, everybody loves an October (ahem, February) Surprise...

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They do things differently in...Korea

Monday, November 12, 2007
"The nation's election watchdog yesterday issued warnings against three leading presidential candidates for illegal premature campaigning...Ignoring a prior request by the NEC, Chung and Lee participated at a discussion forum...announcing their campaign pledges". Source.


Erm, how on earth could such a rule hope to be enforced in these parts? Could not every Brown, Cameron and Clegg (face it Huhne, you ain't going to win) utterance be classed as campaigning?


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Has the BBC finally worked out what 'liberal' means?

Monday, October 22, 2007
The first paragraph of a report on the Polish election win for Civic Platform:

"Poland's liberal opposition Civic Platform party has won a massive poll victory, ousting Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski's conservatives".

If I did not know better, I would be thinking, this is BAD news.

However, here are some extracts from Civic Platform's, erm, platform:

* flat tax (15% for personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT) and VAT);
* privatization of the remaining public sectors of Polish economy;
* privatization of health care;
* decentralization through allocating a larger portion of the budget for local governments;
* direct elections of mayors and regional governors;
* higher education reform with equal rights for private and public universities;
* expanding the teaching of economics in secondary schools;
* halving the number of MPs in the Sejm from 460 to 230 and depriving them of parliamentary immunity from prosecution;
* first-past-the-post electoral system instead of proportional representation;
* labour law reform to reduce the power of trade unions;
* independence over monetary policy by the National Bank of Poland.

Good manifesto, isn't it? Lifted from the usual place. Try as I might, I can't see our own dear Lib Dems, the US Democrats, or any members of the soi disante Liberal International signing up for that set of policies.

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You too can vote in the Norwegian election. Ish

Monday, August 20, 2007
Or at least answer a raft of questions to find out which party best suits one's views. Here is the Valgomat test, which the lovely people at Aftenpost have made available in English.

And my electoral date is with the Progress Party, "The Party advocates free market economics and deregulation of the economy, stricter limits on immigration, especially from immigrants who break the law, closer cooperation with NATO, United States and also Israel in foreign policy, a more controlled state aid to developing countries, social and cultural conservatism, the decentralization of government."

Sounds fairly promising, doesn't it?

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