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Frenchman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine"">"It is never difficult to distinguish between a Frenchman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine"

Thursday, November 19, 2009
(Granted, it is our Hibernian neighbours who have more to feel aggreived about at the mo'.  And apologies to the Master for the quote).

Anyway, TNS Sofres asked the following:

"Of the following qualifiers, which best characterise your current frame of mind?" 

And the results, by party, are in:


I'm quite impressed that so many Gaullists are feeling serene, frankly.  Equally intriguing is that Greens, who are forever telling us the end is nigh are the least likely to be fearful.  Also, a round of applause for the Liberals in that they supply none of the 'don't knows'. 

Elsewhere, the voters of all parties think the worst is yet to come, recession-wise, with 72% of the Left, and 54% of both Libs and the Right thinking so.   44% of the Left think recovery will come later than 2011.

The French right appears to be less than wholly convinced by capitalism and the free market, as a mere 5% think that it should be left alone, with 50% wanting some reform and 36% wanting in depth reform.  Oh dear...  Mind you, one has to be amused by the one in 50 of Socialist voters who also want it left alone. 


Sticking with France, a survey by Conde Nast suggests that French women spend an average of €196 on a pair of shoes.  That's £175, sterling fans.   Given that the average French woman of 25+ has, get this, 34 pairs on average, that's €6664, or £5945.  Crikey.

Back on planet reality, it would look as though the survey only addressed readers of two Conde Nast mags, so cum grano salis, as the ancients had it.   

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posted by Croydonian

Guess who is missing its escudos, pesatas and so on?

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Yet more from Eurobarometer, and yet more gratuitous use of graphics:

"Tell me whether you totally agree, tend to agree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with the following statement: (OUR COUNTRY) would have been better protected in the face of the current financial and economic crisis if we had kept the (FORMER NATIONAL CURRENCY).


The Spanish, Cypriots and Portuguese seem to be missing their old currencies, while the much vaunted supposed love of the Germans for the Mark and the Italians for the Lira appears to have been overplayed. Special mark of disgrace for the high number of Italian and Irish 'don't knows'.

And prospective Euro adopters, asked a rejigged version of that question:

Tell me whether you totally agree, tend to agree, tend to disagree or totally disagree with the following statement: (OUR COUNTRY) would have been better protected in the face of the current financial and economic crisis if we had adopted the European single currency, the euro
Thus the Bulgars are the least Euro-enthused and the Magyars the most. As to us, we favour keeping the pound by a factor of 2:1.

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posted by Croydonian

Another way of looking at the downturn

Eurobarometer has been polling the European polis on what it reckons to the slump, and I have charted the figures for those judging the consequences 'very important' for the world economy and for themselves:Our Scandinavian and Dutch friends distinguish themselves by being less than concerned for themselves, but being quite seriously concerned for the global economy. The closest match of concern levels is for Romania and Latvia, while the Irish, Greeks and Magyars are the most alarmed for the world overall.

Meanwhile, I am extemely irked that I cannot find voting figures for yesterday on the Gurkha issue.

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posted by Croydonian

Some 'white, blue-eyed' bankers for Lula

Friday, March 27, 2009
"This was a crisis fostered and boosted by the irrational behaviour of people that are white and blue eyed," says Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva.

Challenged about his claims, Lula responded: "I only record what I see in the press. I am not acquainted with a single black banker." Source

So here are a couple of black swans:

Stan O'Neal - "He became president of [Merrill Lynch] in 2001 in a palace intrigue that eventually led to the early ouster of his predecessor and one-time mentor David Komansky [3]. By 2003, he was CEO and chairman.[1] He was the first African American to hold such a high position on Wall Street".

And Franklin Raines - "In accordance with the mission of Fannie Mae to enable home ownership by a greater proportion of the population, Franklin Raines, while Chairman and CEO, began a pilot program in 1999 to issue bank loans to individuals with low to moderate income, and to ease credit requirements on loans that Fannie Mae purchased from banks. Raines promoted the program saying that it would allow consumers who were "a notch below what our current underwriting has required" to get home loans. The move was intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners.[15] Some observers have noted that the expansion of easy credit to home buyers with a lesser ability to pay them back was one of the major contributing factors to the subprime mortgage crisis".


As a coda to this, a nice lady from the BBC world service contacted me about appearing on a phone in about the issues raised by this, and we had a briefish chat. However, she said that the phone-in would be bumped if something bigger came up, which was perhaps a euphemism for my thoughts being insufficiently interesting. Anyway, the world was spared the input of 'William from Croydon'. Just as well, perhaps.

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posted by Croydonian

EU raps Brown's knuckles

Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Like so:

Commission takes steps under the excessive deficit procedure for France, Greece, Ireland, Spain and UK

"The United Kingdom is under the excessive deficit procedure since July 2008, when the Council recommended, on the basis of a Commission proposal, to bring the general government deficit below 3% of GDP by 2009/10. But since then the budgetary situation has worsened substantially on account of the sharper-than-expected economic slowdown and the deficit-increasing discretionary measures adopted by the UK in line with the European Recovery Plan.

According to the 2008 update of the UK's convergence programme, the deficit in 2009/10 is projected to reach 8.2% of GDP, with the discretionary loosening accounting for around one-third of the increase over the previous year. The January forecasts of the Commission envisage an even sharper contraction in economic activity and project a deficit in 2009/10 of 9½% of GDP. The government gross debt ratio, which was close to 40% of GDP in 2007/08, is expected by the UK authorities to rise considerably to almost 70% of GDP in 2013/14.

Against this background, the Commission recommends to the Council to decide that, in a context of progressively weakening economic conditions, the UK authorities have not taken effective action to end the excessive deficit situation by 2009/10 and to adopt a new recommendation under Article 104.7 setting a new deadline of the 2013/14 financial year to correct the deficit below 3%. To this end, the UK authorities are asked in 2010/11 and beyond, to ensure additional annual efforts beyond those envisaged in the 2008 update of the UK's convergence programme. The UK is also recommended to reverse progressively the increase in the government gross debt ratio".

Note that the deficit in these parts is higher than in any of the other countries targeted. I fear it will take more than the combined power of every river in the country to clean out these Augean stables, come The Reckoning.

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posted by Croydonian

A bailout worthy of broad support.

Sunday, March 08, 2009
Banks? Pah. The car industry? Pah.

Nope, pubs, c/o leftie think tank the ippr (still in lower case):

Ahead of the UK Pubs Crisis Ministerial Summit tomorrow (Wednesday 4th March) organised by the All Party Parliamentary Beer Group, Dr Rick Muir, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr) said:

"Government must recognise the invaluable contribution that pubs can make to their local communities. Local pubs enrich civic life by providing a meeting place for people from all walks of life and different backgrounds to get together. They also provide a meeting space for local groups and associations and help to deliver a range of public services, espeically in rural areas".


Not entirely sure I would put it quite like that, but 'think globally, drink locally' has a certain resonance.

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posted by Croydonian

One way of positioning yourself in a competitive job market

Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Yanick Miel, a desperate or audacious (or both) 23 year old French management etc graduate is selling himself on ebay, at a starting price of €1. The poor devil has made 300 applications and had 20 interviews and is yet to secure himself a job after five months. He is listed in the category of Art, Antiquités , Objets du XXème et récents.

More at Libé, including his plan to loiter at La Défense this afternoon handing out his CV. He also has a remarkably unattractive website.

As things stand, his price has gone up to €1070 but there are nine days to go. All the bidders are Parisians, oddly enough.

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posted by Croydonian

EU to UK - hike taxes or cut spending

Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Or in somewhat longer form:

"In view of the Commission assessment, the United Kingdom is invited to (i) proceed in financial year 2009/10 with the stimulus measures consistent with the European Recovery Plan while avoiding any further deterioration of public finances; (ii) strengthen the pace of budgetary consolidation from 2010/11 onwards to ensure a rapid correction of the excessive deficit; (iii) define a fiscal framework consistent with an improvement of the long-term sustainability of its public finances".

It also notes the following:

"After the expansionary fiscal measures in 2009/10, the UK authorities plan some consolidation from 2010/11 onwards, but there are risks to the achievement of this consolidation and the deficit in 2013/14 would still be above 3% of GDP. Improvements would depend on a significant economic recovery as well as the achievement of spending targets. The debt ratio, which was close to 40% of GDP in 2007/08, is now expected to rise to almost 70% of GDP by the end of the programme period".

And this, it must be said, is taken from the fantasy document submitted by the Treasury in December. I say fantasy, as it is, inter alia, assuming that the recession we are in will be less severe than the last two, and in 2011 the economy goes into fifth gear. Micawber-ish, Pollyanna-ish or just mendacious?

Look at the chart on page 12 of the document:


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posted by Croydonian

The perils of speaking on the hoof

Monday, February 16, 2009
A cracking foot in mouth from Labour MP Martin Salter on the World at One just now - he referred to the government's 'safety blanket' for bankers. I am now picturing Goodwin et al clutching on to pieces of cloth like that child in the Peanuts strip. I suspect he meant 'safety net', but his pseudo-malaprop is far more arresting.

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posted by Croydonian

Good news on the economic front

Thursday, February 12, 2009
Muzak - yes, it is a company - has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, so perhaps this marks the end of the Elevator Symphony. Or not, as the case may be. Symapthies go out to the backroom personnel, by the way.

Any other suggestions for recession / depression / economic apocalypse victims that would be welcome? I am excluding media companies, as that would be like hunting penned sheep with a 12 bore.

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posted by Croydonian

Cassandra corner

Wednesday, February 11, 2009
From Businessmonitor.com:

"Britain is facing an unprecedented fall in its economic world ranking, according to a newly produced report by country risk specialists Business Monitor International (BMI). Ranked by GDP per capita, the UK is set to fall by nine places, from 12th place in 2007 to 21st in 2010".

And it gets worse:

  • Britain will suffer a far deeper recession than either the UK Treasury or IMF predicts. GDP is forecast to contract by 3.5% in 2009, followed by a shallow 0.2% recovery in 2010. Unemployment will peak at 3.2 million next year, an 11.2% rate, with the financial services sector set to lose 570,000 jobs between 2008 and 2010.
  • Despite enjoying 11 years of strong growth between 1997 and 2007, the UK ran a budget deficit of 1.7% of GDP over this period, fuelling a fiscal time bomb. Faced with the financial burden of bailing out the banking sector and kick-starting the economy, the budget deficit will swell to an unsustainable 9.3% of GDP in 2009, and average 6.7% over the following four years.
  • Property prices will see a cumulative fall of 41%, from peak to trough, and could take more than 10 years to recover to the levels of 2007. The impact of negative equity and declining asset values will further serve to depress consumer spending and economic growth.

Those leapfrogging us are the UAE, Austria, France, Japan, German, Canada, the US of A, Australia and Italy.

And just to wrap things up:

"The UK has also suffered a steep fall in BMI's short-term Political Risk Rating table, slipping 16 places since the start of 2008 to 31st place out of 150 ranked states. A key factor here is the government's diminishing policy credibility, which is seen to be endangering long-term fiscal sustainability. With the added uncertainty of parliamentary elections due by May 2010, the UK's political risk ranking could well dip lower over the next year.

Another area of concern examined by the report is the current state, and future prospects, of the British labour force. Continuing shortcomings in the education sector, combined with an array of damaging social and demographic trends, have weighed heavily on the UK's deteriorating Labour Force Quality index. Amongst a peer group of 20 developed and key emerging economies the UK is ranked 9th overall - below Canada, the US and Germany - and fares particularly badly on the health (10th) and social & Demographic (13th) indicators. Most worryingly, though, on the Future Opportunities component (which measures the potential for future improvement in the Labour Force Quality Index), the UK lies in 16th place".

More at the site linked, or the whole report for anyone who fancies forking out $130.



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posted by Croydonian

Guess who's not coming to dinner

Saturday, February 07, 2009
And, moreover, was not invited in the first place. The next time that Brown runs his mouth about how the world is copying his, cough, well-thought out plans for reviving the economy, note this from La Tribune:

"This Saturday, Nicolas Sarkozy and...Angela Merkel announced a common initiative...to better respond to the economic crisis. The objective of this Franco-German initiative is to develop a Europe (I think they mean the EU) that is “more united and more reactive” in the economic domain".

So much for the world hanging on his every word. While our - thank the Lord - non-particiaption in the Euro will always put the UK on the sidelines of EU economic policy, one might think that Sarko and Merko might have sought Brown's thoughts if they had not decided that he has got it all horribly, horribly wrong....

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posted by Croydonian

Iceland on Thames revisited

Saturday, January 31, 2009
From Der Spiegel, headlined 'Can countries really go bankrupt', and illustrated with a photo of No 1 Canada Water:

"Take the example of Great Britain. The country is on the brink of financial ruin. Real estate is overvalued, private households are overly indebted and its vast financial sector has been badly hit by the crisis. Confidence in Britain's ability to overcome the economic turmoil is sinking by the day, as evidenced by the precipitous decline of the pound, which has almost reached parity with the euro. Just 13 months ago, it was worth €1.40.

"I wouldn't invest any more money in Great Britain," says American investor Jim Rogers. And economist Willem Buiter, a former consultant to the Bank of England, warns of the "risk that Great Britain will become a second Iceland."


OK, we've heard from Rogers before, but I reckoned the extract was worth taking to a narrower audience.


Sticking with Germany, finance minister Peer Steinbrück has been photographed looking at his lottery ticket. Admittedly winning the jackpot would not do much towards paying off the national debt.

Much though I long to see Brown and his glove puppet sitting in the gutter with pieces of cardboard declaring poverty etc, I would consider a big win for both - if it resulted in their leaving public life forever - a good trade off for even the most unreconcilable of Brown haters.

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Really rather good

Thursday, December 18, 2008
Spotted at Le Monde, to which respect is due:



And while I'm at it, AC/DC in ascii art:


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posted by Croydonian

The recession - solved

Or so our friends in the DPRK think:

"The international community is now busy with moves to find a way-out of the worldwide financial crunch that started with the financial crisis in the U.S. and weather it....The above-said facts indicate that it is very important to strengthen the independence of national economy and develop economy on the basis of a correct economic theory, and the random introduction of foreign capital may render the national economy bankrupt...

(Insert the joke about two economists with three opinions here)

A currency of a specified country should not be regarded as a main currency but a multilateral currency system should be established and put into force.

So they won't be asking to join the euro any time soon.

What is also important is to prevent national economy from going bankrupt being embroiled in the vortex of "globalization."...Another important lesson is that if a country opts for disorderly economic development based on a jungle law, without promoting economic progress based on a correct economic theory and science and technology, it may also suffer from another shocking economic crisis any time".

Sounds like Socialism in One Country, multiplied circa 192 fold.

Elsewhere, having tired - for now - of the 'jumping into a fire with faggots strapped to one's back' simile, the KCNA notes "Lee Myung Bak's keeping such warmonger as Ri Sang Hui in his regime is as foolish an act as pricking his own eyes".

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