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A very brief observation on Neda

Monday, June 22, 2009
She being the Iranian woman gunned down by the Iranian authorities the other day.

A day or so back I was wondering whether the Iranian events would furnish the world with a Tianamen Square 'tank man' or a Jan Palach (qv), and sadly for her family and friends it is her.

It is a grim way to achieve immortality, and it is perhaps just as well that is so hard to think of many more individuals who in their sacrifice symbolise an event.

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posted by Croydonian

Unconvincing political statement o' the day

Wednesday, June 03, 2009
From Ha'aretz:

Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said on Wednesday his government has no plans to attack Iran.

Yeah. Right.

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posted by Croydonian

Iranian political humour

Thursday, May 28, 2009
A selection of quips, as found at Radio Liberty / Free Europe:

You don't change the driver of a car that is falling into a ravine. From The Election Campaign Headquarters of Dr. Mahmud Ahmadinejad."

The Election Commission has announced in its last statement regarding the election that writing names such as monkey, traitor, fascist, silly, and [expletive] on the ballots will be considered a vote for Ahmadinejad."

Those were the bet ones. Yes, really. Perhaps there is an unbridgeable cultural divide between the long-suffering people of Iran and these parts.

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posted by Croydonian

A selection of odds and ends

Monday, May 04, 2009
Starting, naturally, with an opinion poll:

Should the IDF take out Iran's nuclear facilities? 66% of Israeli Jews polled agree, 15% do not, and the rest do not know.

Conspiracy fans everywhere will be delighted to know that we are in on this one too:

"The Israel Air Force recently staged military exercises between Israel and the British colony of Gibraltar near southern Spain, the French magazine L'Express reported on Saturday.

The fact that the drills were held 3,800 kilometers away from Israel "confirms that the Israel Defense Forces is making concrete preparations" to attack Iran over its refusal to cooperate with the international community over its contentious nuclear program, according to L'Express".

That the IDF is able to project force well beyond Israel's immediate neighbourhood is well known, but sending a squadron of F-16s to the other end of the Med is a rather different proposition to securing overflight rights among some less than neighbourly neighbours. Perhaps An All Seeing Eye can tell me whether plane spotters have been out in force in his neck of the woods.

Let's see Harman get upset about this:

"As the crisis continues unabated and the collapse of the global economy pushes up unemployment figures, one thing is becoming clear: The crisis is disproportionately affecting men. Almost 80 percent of the 5.1 million Americans who have lost their jobs in recent months have been men. The US male unemployment figure is now 8.8 percent, while it is still only 7 percent for women".

And a passing Tamiflu-reistant porker just did an Immelman turn.

Factlet o' the day:

"The designer of the first-ever Soviet limousine was arrested on wrongful accusation and died in Stalin camps after two years of imprisonment".

As every schoolboy knows, the KGB's predecessors use to tour Moscow etc in vans marked 'Drink Soviet campagne'.

Meanwhile, the Kiwi equivalent of whoever presents the breakfast TV progs in these parts has got himself in trouble:



Not enormously gallant, but there you are.

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posted by Croydonian

Gulf War III?

Thursday, February 05, 2009
Straight from Lebanese daily Dar Al Hayat:

"Two deputies from the Iranian Shura Council launched a stinging verbal attack on the United Arab Emirates. One of them considered all of the UAE territories protectorates of Iran, describing Abu Dhabi's demand to negotiate over the fate of the three islands (Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu-Moussa) as impudent. For his part, the other deputy warned that UAE's demand to regain the occupied islands would trigger a war between the two countries".

And the area in question (bottom right corner), scanned (wonkily...) from the indispensable 'Atlas of Territorial and Border Disputes' (NEL, 1980):



Background to the dispute is readily available in the usual place, but the Iranians occupied the islands in '71 and have held them since. I would not fancy the UAE's chances against Iran, but if the UAE's Uncle Sam has its back, who knows where this might lead?

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posted by Croydonian

A new high tide for extreme stupidity?

Wednesday, October 22, 2008
From Ha'aretz:

"Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London.

The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet, a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy".

While Iran has an air force, it could expect to be annihilated if it got into Israeli airspace, and Iranian ballistic missiles are of uncertain quality and reliability.

Always supposing that Iran overcame those small local difficulties and succeeded in making a mess of Dimona and / or Israeli airbases, that still leaves the nuclear-equipped Israeli navy....

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posted by Croydonian

"Infidel Defilers. They shall all drown in lakes of blood".

Saturday, December 08, 2007
The Guardian notes that Oliver Stone is intent on making a documentary on Ahmedinejad, or as a friend insists on calling him, Ahmed Dinner Jazz.

"Ahmadinejad accepted the request earlier this year by the director to make a documentary about him. A bad move, according to one of Iran's most influential conservative newspapers, which has tried to convince him to reconsider. Keyhan, which has links to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pointed to Stone's 1991 movie, The Doors, to show that he is unsuited to film the Iranian president, whom the paper called "an intellectual and peacemaker".

"The Doors was in commemoration of one of America's perverted and half-mad singers; someone who urinated on the head of his fans during his concerts and enjoyed doing so," wrote the article's author, Elham Rajabpour".


I do not think that Keyhan has begun to investigate Stone's oeuvre, so as a public service, here is a list of Stone projects. I think that the Iranians have really missed a trick in not considering 'Conan the Barbarian', and I see Ahmedinejad as a shoo-in for the character of Thulsa Doom, Conan's would be nemesis, and the head of a snake cult - a quote from whom acts as my headline.

Alternatively, 'jad could be a prison chief a la 'Midnight Express', a goon a la 'Salvador', a triad leader in the fashion of 'Year of the Dragon', or Tony 'say hello to my leetle frien'' Montana in 'Scarface'. The most obvious parallel, however, would be Darius in 'Alexander'....


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posted by Croydonian

Qaradawi and Tessa Jowell - separated at birth

Saturday, October 06, 2007
One would not think so, but both of them think it acceptable to react to something they have not seen. Jowell decided she did not like the hilarious Brass Eye satire on the paedophile panic, and "was reported as asking the Independent Television Commission to revise its rules to allow such a controversial show to be prevented from broadcast even though she hadn't watched the actual episode of the show". Source.

As to Livingstone's mate Yussuf Al-Qaradawi, his beef was over the Jyllands-Posten's Mohammed cartoons, and "declared 3 February 2006 as ‘Anger Day’ on his TV programme. A wave of violent protests across the globe unleashing followed in the wake of that transmission". Which, one might note, led to considerable bloodshed - around 100 deaths are attributed to the furore "In the documentary [‘Those Damned Drawings’ (‘De Forbandede Tegninger’)], [director Karsten] Kjær shows the Mohammed drawings to Al-Qaradawi, who views them for the first time". The article gives no indication as to how Qaradawi reacted, but "Kjær also shows the cartoons to Ali Bakhsi, the Iranian who spearheaded demonstrations in Tehran that led to the burning of the Danish embassy there. Bakhsi laughingly says the drawings look nothing like Mohammed but rather like an Indian Sikh". Given there are no approved images of Mohammed, how would Bakshi know?

Anyway, those with access to Danish channel DR1 can watch the programme at five past ten on Sunday evening.

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posted by Croydonian

Iran & regional stability - the connection

Friday, October 05, 2007
Not as one might think, that the neighbourhood would be a whole safer for women, children, men and probably household pets if the Islamic Republic of Iran could be persuaded to stick to its knitting.

But rather, "On the situation in Iraq, [Iranian Foreign Minister] Mr. Motaki, asked to clarify a reported remark by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran would “fill the vacuum” if troops from other countries were to leave, he said Gulf countries, including Iran, were in a position to protect stability in that region. That was a “major” Iranian policy, underpinned by Security Council Resolution 598 (1987), which referred to regional security by regional countries".

Meanwhile, there is more guff from Mr Motaki than even Brown manages:

"In North Korea, they are talking about nuclear weapons and in Iran we are talking about nuclear energy. This is peaceful. Really, the countries that are testing their fourth or fifth generation of nuclear bombs are the real threat for the world, because they have the experience of using nuclear weapons in their history. Those who have used [them] once may use them again, and that’s a real threat".
....

"We tried to brief our friends (Plural? Erm....) in the region that Iran is trying its best to avoid any confrontation, but we do not consider the other party to be in the position to impose another war [in the region] against its taxpayers, here in the United States".

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posted by Croydonian

Globalisation - It's a good thing

Friday, April 27, 2007
At least that is recognised by the population of the planet, as measured by worldpublicopinion.org's poll, which quizzed people in 17 states plus the Palestinian 'authority'. We, alas, were not asked.

It is the Chinese who have best understood this, with 87% thinking it good, and around two-thirds or more of polled Armenians, Israelis, Koreans, Thais and Australians agreeing.

There were an awful lot of apparent 'don't knows' in Mexico, Russia and elsewhere, but the highest percentage thinking globalisation is 'mostly bad' came from our friends on the other side of the Channel - 42%.

The French, in that rather odd way of theirs, saw 38% thinking that trade is bad for consumers. Erm, how? If they do not want to buy Sony TVs, buy Madonna CDs, drink Scotch, drive a Volkswagen, no-one is holding an AK-47 to their heads. Further evidence that France needs to be carpet bombed with Milton Friedman in translation comes from 73% thinking that trade is bad for job creation in France.


Other points to note include 63% of Iranians thinking globalisation good for Iran, and Armenians and Koreans being the least keen on compliance with WTO rulings against their countries.

More later, perhaps.

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posted by Croydonian

Osiraq II - more popular than one might think

Sunday, April 08, 2007
The Jerusalem Post reports on a poll by Open Europe , which shows 52% of Europeans polled agreeing "We must stop countries like Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if that means taking military action". The Danes are the most hawkish at 68% and the Slovaks are the most doveish at 37%. We come in at 51%.

I doubt that the 'we' in the question means the Flyvevåbnet or Royal Danish Air Force, although they do have 48 F-16s, the same planes our Israeli friends used to take out Osiraq in 1981. As per usual, I expect 'Europe' expects the IDF or the Seventh Fleet to furnish the reckoning, as only 23% of those polled judge that "Our country should spend more on defence and less on other things"

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posted by Croydonian

Iran and the Geneva Convention.

Thursday, March 29, 2007
Iran is a signatory to the Geneva conventions, and has been since 1949. While we are not at war with Tehran, I have been doing some investigating as to the applicability of the conventions, particularly the Third to current events.

Always supposing that Tehran is correct in its assertion to that Jolly Jack Tars etc were in their territorial waters, article five would appear to apply:

"Should any doubt arise as to whether persons, having committed a belligerent act..." is a prisoner of war "...such persons shall enjoy the protection of the present Convention until such time as their status has been determined by a competent tribunal."

Thence to Tehran's obligations:

13 - "Prisoners of war must at all times be humanely treated....Prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity".

Article 60 is another curious one: "The Detaining Power shall grant all prisoners of war a monthly advance of pay".

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posted by Croydonian

Jacques Chirac - Middle East policy hawk

Thursday, February 01, 2007
The President seems to be getting a bit confused, in that in an interview on Monday he said the following:

"On Monday, Chirac said of Iran and its nuclear program: "I would say that what is dangerous about this situation is not the fact of having a nuclear bomb. Having one or perhaps a second bomb a little later, well, that's not very dangerous." Instead, Chirac said, the danger lies in the chances of proliferation or an arms race in the Middle East should Iran build a nuclear bomb. Possessing the weapon would be useless for Iran -- whose leader has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" -- as using it would mean an instant counterattack. "Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel?" Chirac asked. "It would not have gone 200 meters into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed."

However, he has since attempted to retract it thus:

"I retract it, of course, when I said, 'One is going to raze Tehran,'" he said. Chirac also said other countries would stop any bomb launched by Iran from reaching its target. "It is obvious that this bomb, at the moment it was launched, obviously would be destroyed immediately," he said. "We have the means -- several countries have the means to destroy a bomb. Regarding his comments that Israel could be a target of an Iranian weapon and that Israel would retaliate, Chirac said: "I don't think I spoke about Israel yesterday. Maybe I did so but I don't think so. I have no recollection of that."

The interview was with the Washington Post, Herald Tribune and the Nouvelle Observateur, taped and on the record. Might he have been hitting the bordeaux a bit hard, is he losing his marbles, or more likely is he reacting to France losing its status as a 'Satan', as I noted recently?

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posted by Croydonian

Having trouble keeping your Tomcat airworthy?

Wednesday, January 31, 2007
In which case move quickly, as supplies are about to be become unavailable once and for all, if a senator from Oregon has his way.

Given that the US Navy retired its remaining F14s last September, and the Iranian Air Force (or more properly, the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force) is the only airforce that flies them, this does seem quite a sensible move. Although the sale of spares to Iran has been embargoed since 1979, there is a black market in spares and parts have got through, apparently. Mind you, you would need very dozy customs bods and a fairly hefty overnight bag for a General Electric F110-GE-400 afterburning turbofan...

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posted by Croydonian

Open thread

Sunday, January 07, 2007
Not hugely inspired today, so I'm open to suggestions for issues worth discussing. However, I am intrigued that the Sunday Times is making so much of the prospect of Israel going for the nuclear option against Iran, given that the same story ran in The Spectator on Friday.

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posted by Croydonian

Thursday, August 17, 2006
The Iranians attempt to cause offence.

Liberation reports on the long awaited exhibition of anti-semitic cartoons in Tehran. One of the organisers claims 'We've opened this exhibition to find out just where the West's limits on freedom of expression lie'. It looks to contain all the usual yawn inducing iconography of Shields of David mutating into Swastikas etc. Anyone who knows the Arab dailies (or looks at Memri.org) will know that there is nothing new in this, and such cartoons are the bread and butter of Arab cartoonsts.

Meanwhile, some Israeli cartoonists rose to the challenge with this lot . One of the organisers commented: “We’ll show the world we can do the best, sharpest, most offensive Jew hating cartoons ever published! No Iranian will beat us on our home turf!”

I rather liked this one:

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posted by Croydonian