Piecing together sundry odds and ends, what I think is happening is a comparative push back to the centre in US politics, with the more successful Republican candidates being those who are less interested in fighting the culture wars, and more interested sticking to the more traditional political issues like economics and operational effectiveness.
Similarly, it has not worked out too well for some of the Year Zero Democrats.
Congressional seats are more likely to have pivoted on local issues than the state wide contests, so I will focus on those.
While incumbency seems to help,
in general, with personal votes significant, more divisive figures seem to generate an anti-vote.
Case in point #1 – Arnie easily retained the governorship of California, despite having started off in office quite badly. He has taken a bipartisan approach, and much like your humble host is socially liberal and economically hawkish. A friend of mine insists that Arnie is a Southern Democrat, and he is irked that he isn’t seen as such, but rather as a liberal Republican and has stood as one, and succeeded.
#2 Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania. Santorum got crushed at 59/41, having won 52/46 in 2000. He is a very much a Christian values character, and is possibly the most loathed politician among gays in particular. The more adventurous of you might wish to google ‘Santorum’ to see the word created by The Onion’s readership in ‘tribute’.
#3 Liebermann in Connecticut. He stood as an Independent, the nomination having gone to Ned Lamont. Lamont is very, very anti-Iraq war, and was a poster boy for the more ideological of the left of the Dems. Liebermann took 50% to Lamont’s 40% and the GOP’s derisory 10%. He had walked it at 60% in 2000.
#4 Katherine Harris in Florida. Remember her from 2000? Beaten 60/38, with the Dems having won 51/46 in 2000.
#5 Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) - Texas scarcely lost ground – 65/32 last time, to 62/36 this time. Pro-guns, middle of the road on abortion. Apparently one to watch as a Gubernatorial candidate in 2010, or as a VP candidate in 2008.
Further thoughts later, perhaps.
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on Thursday, November 09, 2006 at 2:03 pm.
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what happened with the whole lieberman thing?
everyone's saying it was Iraq but US politics has always struck me as parochial in the extreme and Bill Clinton-arguably the greatest politician of the last twenty years said it all.'it's the economy stoopid'
is there a view that the economy is not so good or was it Iraq that really focused minds.
katherine harris,who's she?
Liebermann is right wing by Dem standards, and retained the seat due to tactical voting by Rep supporters. He had been de-selected for being pro-war.
Katherine Harris was the Florida Secretary of State during the Hanging Chad saga, and hence the state's public face.
hanging chad?don't know that one.sorrycan you explain
The disputed votes in the 2000 Presidential election - Dems voting for Pat Buchanan in error and then trying to vote again etc etc, with the ballot papers ending up a right mess, with hanging chads and so forth.
Hanging, sir?
Ooh behave!
Socially liberal and economically hawkish is a recipe for Tory success.
Tennessee was a particularly nasty senate race. The contest became notorious for a negative advert targeting Democratic hopeful Harold Ford jnr which critics said played the race card. It showed a series of people offering tongue-in-cheek reasons to vote for Mr Ford - such as a hunter saying, "Ford's right, I do have too many guns", and a mock-sleazy type asking, "So he took money from porn producers. Who hasn't?", etc. Then a blonde woman - with no clothes visible - says "I met Harold at the Playboy party". As the spot ends, she winks and says breathily: "Harold - call me!".
Ford lost by 3%.
IT - Thanks for the insight. Got to love those American attack ads.
I like to listen to the embarrassing silence from the anti-Bush crowd now the balance has swung their way. No charges of election stealing, or stupid Americans this time round.
CNN Report on voter key issues:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/07/election.exitpolls/index.html
seems to indicate they are more concerned with corruption, home security and the economy than Iraq.
Ian - nice to see another local here.
Yes, it is quite instructive to compare the hurricane of lawsuits post-2000 with the knife-edge decisions in Virginia and elsewhere which Republicans have conceded gracefully.
And so much for The Independent's idiotic 'It's the war, stupid' front page yesterday.
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