A Union Flag-bedecked elephant in the room?
Those lovely people at the News of the World have been kind enough to commission a poll of marginals, the headline findings here. It predicts a 78 seat majority for the blue team, and doubtless will be reported and commented on elsewhere.
However, what is a tad more bloggable - by my reckoning - is the breakdown of detail available at ICM Research's site. A fairly hefty 8% of those polled opt for fringe parties, with the SNP on 2%, Plaid on 1%, the Greens on 1% and UKIP on 1%. The NOTW refers specifically to Britain in its item, so the remaining 4% should not be supporters of the Ulster parties. A quick scan of the 2005 election results shows that the BNP was by far the most successful of those parties not already named, directly or indirectly. They polled 0.7% of the popular vote in 2005, winning no seats, natch. Excluding the deeply nebulous 'Independent', the only other parties attracting more than 0.1% of the vote were Respect and Sheridan's merry band of Trots, the SSP.
Clearly a poll of marginals and the overall popular vote in 2005 are not strictly comparable, but we are talking Galas and Granny Smiths rather than apples and oranges.
More on the detail on policies, individuals etc later, probably.
Sticking with union flags, note this comment from Noel Gallagher - the talented one of the two - in the Irish Times:
Then do a google images search on 'Noel Gallagher Union Jack'..... (Yes, I know that is the flag of the union, not England, but it certainly doesn't include the Republic's tricolour, does it?)
However, what is a tad more bloggable - by my reckoning - is the breakdown of detail available at ICM Research's site. A fairly hefty 8% of those polled opt for fringe parties, with the SNP on 2%, Plaid on 1%, the Greens on 1% and UKIP on 1%. The NOTW refers specifically to Britain in its item, so the remaining 4% should not be supporters of the Ulster parties. A quick scan of the 2005 election results shows that the BNP was by far the most successful of those parties not already named, directly or indirectly. They polled 0.7% of the popular vote in 2005, winning no seats, natch. Excluding the deeply nebulous 'Independent', the only other parties attracting more than 0.1% of the vote were Respect and Sheridan's merry band of Trots, the SSP.
Clearly a poll of marginals and the overall popular vote in 2005 are not strictly comparable, but we are talking Galas and Granny Smiths rather than apples and oranges.
More on the detail on policies, individuals etc later, probably.
Sticking with union flags, note this comment from Noel Gallagher - the talented one of the two - in the Irish Times:
"I clearly remember my mam saying to me and my two brothers when we were growing up: 'You're only English because you were born here.' And with a mother from Mayo and a father from Co Meath, there's not a drop of English blood in me. I recently had a child with my Scottish girlfriend, and there's no English blood in him at all.
"I feel as Irish as the next person".Then do a google images search on 'Noel Gallagher Union Jack'..... (Yes, I know that is the flag of the union, not England, but it certainly doesn't include the Republic's tricolour, does it?)
Labels: Elections, fun with statistics, psephology
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on Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 7:40 pm.
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Are the Gallaghers the best people to quote?
James - perhaps not, but I fancied taking that tale to anarrower audience.
Is he flogging records over there at the moment then?
Preumably he's touring...
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