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Reading the electoral tea leaves for Croydon

I have just got hold of the ward data for the London elections, and judging from the Assembly vote, Gavin Barwell ought to walk Croydon Central at the next general election. I make Steve O'Connell's share in the Croydon Central wards 46.6%, to the 25.5% for Labour.

The seat is notionally Labour, given boundary changes, but we won it in 2005. Pelling's share of the vote was 40.8% to Davies's 40.6%. The Lib Dems were squeezed from 13% to 9.2%. UKIP and the Greens fared better, share-wise, than at the general election.

Croydon North looks to be safe for the Wickser - 42% for Labour, down from 54%. The much mocked Jason Hadden should be aiming for 27%, up from our 22% last time.

That Richard Ottaway will retain Croydon South cannot be in doubt.

More of this sort of thing for other marginal seats on request.

Gavin - should you (or any of your people) read this, do something about your gavin4croydon site - it only makes page three of the googling of Gavin Barwell. *Not* good. I cheated and tried Gavin Barwell Croydon Central, and that makes page one. Just.

Update

Further peering at the darjeeling suggests that Carshalton & Wallington would be lost by the Yellow Peril - Brake's 40.3% at the election compares to 31.4% this time, with the Tory candidate securing 39.8% in May, compared to 37.8% in 2005. (Re-worded for clarity)

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Blogger Nick Drew said... 1:29 pm

Just when Gerry Ryan was getting his hopes up ...

Barwell should have enough time for folk to forget the Pelling affair  



Anonymous JuliaM said... 7:13 pm

"Gavin - should you (or any of your people) read this, do something about your gavin4croydon site..."

Why are even the younger pols so ignorant of the web and its potential...?  



Anonymous nomad said... 3:35 am

When I lived in Sutton about 15 years ago it was fairly solid Lib-Dem. I that still the case? Just curious..  



Blogger Praguetory said... 10:24 pm

A regular on UK Polling has posted a lot of info.  



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