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No return to boom and bust?

Our friends at EUPravda have been projecting growth fugures for the EU 27, and charted are growth figures for the Western European economies for 2009 and 2010:

(apparent blanks are 0% growth in France, Sweden, Germany and Italy)

Aren't we lucky to have an economy that isn't reliant on financial services, like Luxembourg, or susceptible to American influences, like, erm, all of them? I have not charted central and eastern Europe, but the Baltic trio are the only others to contract. Slovakia and the Balkan duo are managing circa 5% growth next year and 2010.


Anyway, the detail:


"In summary, growth in the UK economy is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2008. In 2009, anegative carryover and the contraction in domestic demand through the year will lead to a contraction of around 1%, followed by a gradual recovery in 2010 to annual growth of around ½%. This scenario is subject to downside risks relating to the length and severity of financial market problems, which remain highly uncertain but are crucial in view of the scale of household indebtedness and the typically strong growth contribution of the UK's financial sector".

...

As activity weakens the unemployment rate will rise by around 1½ percentage points over the forecast period.

....
In the 2008/09 financial year the general government deficit is forecast to rise to 4¾% of
GDP. Thereafter, public finances are expected to continue deteriorating, with the deficit ratio forecast to reach 6% in 2009/10 and 6½% in 2010/11.

Revenue from corporate taxation...is expected to decrease, primarily reflecting financial sector difficulties....the sharp drop in property transactions and falling property prices will reduce stamp duty revenue. VAT revenues are also forecast to grow at a lower rate than in 2007/08".



So, 'If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family anatidae on our hands'.

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Blogger Letters From A Tory said... 9:46 am

Interesting that Germany appears to be holding on to economic stability, even though their manufacturing sector must be taking a beating right now.  



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