Whilst we are on the subject of 'fair' voting....
Despite my highest mathematical achievement being a 'C' at 'O' level (for which I needed coaching...), I derive much pleasure from fiddling around with electoral statistics, and armed with the turnout figures for the election I have derived an electorate of 45,533,309 and have then allocated the 650 seats to the regions based on actual population, rather than the near-gerrymandered ones we actually voted for. This sees the following adjustments:
Wales -8
SW +2
SE +6
London +2
Eastern +3
East Midlands +2
West Midlands -1
North West - unchanged
Yorkshire & Humberside -1
North East -1
Scotland -4
NI -1
If each party had secured the same percentage of seats in each region under these theoretical boundaries as they did last week, the Tories would have an extra nine seats (316), Labour would have lost seven (251), the LDs would be flat and PC would have lost one (2). The vegetation-coloured Far Left of Brighton Pavillion would be unchanged. I have assumed that Thirsk will stay blue. Northern Ireland presents something of a problem, in that rounding up and down confuses things horribly....
This still leaves us in hung Parliament territory, but Con + DUP comes to 324, and given that the Shinners are not keen on turning up to vote, Lab+LD+SNP+PC+SDLP+Alliance+Sylvia Hermon comes to 322.
Interesting, no?
Update - Idle Pen Pusher has been doing something similar, and it is well worth the read..
Wales -8
SW +2
SE +6
London +2
Eastern +3
East Midlands +2
West Midlands -1
North West - unchanged
Yorkshire & Humberside -1
North East -1
Scotland -4
NI -1
If each party had secured the same percentage of seats in each region under these theoretical boundaries as they did last week, the Tories would have an extra nine seats (316), Labour would have lost seven (251), the LDs would be flat and PC would have lost one (2). The vegetation-coloured Far Left of Brighton Pavillion would be unchanged. I have assumed that Thirsk will stay blue. Northern Ireland presents something of a problem, in that rounding up and down confuses things horribly....
This still leaves us in hung Parliament territory, but Con + DUP comes to 324, and given that the Shinners are not keen on turning up to vote, Lab+LD+SNP+PC+SDLP+Alliance+Sylvia Hermon comes to 322.
Interesting, no?
Update - Idle Pen Pusher has been doing something similar, and it is well worth the read..
Labels: election 2010, fun with statistics, psephology
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on Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 11:00 am.
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Interesting... I did something similar yesterday. My method (not as robust as yours) produced a bigger cut for NI: 3 rather than 1.
Good stuff - thanks. I'm adding a link to your post in mine.
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