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A (very big) war on the horizon

In the opinion of Bharat Verma, Editor of the Indian Defence Review:

China will attack India by 2012 to divert the attention of its own people from "unprecedented"
internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems that are threatening the hold of Communists in that country.

"China will launch an attack on India before 2012. There are multiple reasons for a desperate Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century".

More here.

I would hope that the two do not come to blows, but I would be in India's corner for this one (I'm sure they are very grateful for my support). Conventional warfare between the two - presumably with the Aksai Chin and the McMahon line at issue - would look to be a bit one-sided, with India vastly outarmed. Should things go nuclear, the Chinese also have the advantage.

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Blogger James Higham said... 2:35 pm

It's going to be busy then as it has plans for Russia through Siberia too.  

Blogger Croydonian said... 2:40 pm

The Dragon is pretty unhappy about 'the Unequal Treaties' in general.

One might ask how reliable the Chinese military will actually be, however.  

Anonymous IanVisits said... 2:53 pm

I agree with the Russia allusion.

I was in a briefing on Russia a few weeks ago, and despite all the posturing about NATO for political reasons, they do seem to realise that the Chinese border is likely to be the location of the next war.

Increasing numbers of Chinese live and work in the border region of Russia, and it wouldn't be difficult to argue that China is securing the safety of its own people.

After all, that's the arguement used when Russia invaded Georgia.  

Blogger Croydonian said... 3:14 pm

Hmm, the Chinese have had their eyes on the trans-Amur province of the Russian federation for some years - for a combination of a desire for 'lebensraum', reversing the Aigun Treaty and interest in the mineral rights.

While there are Chinese working in and around Vladivostok and elsewhere on the east bank of the Amur, they cannot really be compared with Russian Georgians as they are comparatively recent arrivals. Not that I imagine that Beijing would step back from that particular thow of the dice if they considered Russia sufficiently decrepit that a grab for those provinces would be successful. However, if the Chinese fancy their chances of a non-nuclear war, India is a much safer bet than Russia

There is the old observation that if the PRC had started a war with the USSR, the latter would have been overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of POWs it had taken within days.  

Anonymous Noel C said... 8:59 pm

Question is would ROC pitch in with the Indians?  

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