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The end of history and the last pub, or 234 years to the Apocalypse

(With apologies)

Mr. Evennett: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport what estimate he has made of the number of public houses which have closed in the last 12 months; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Sutcliffe: The DCMS Statistical Bulletin on Alcohol, Entertainment and Late Night Refreshment does not identify the number of pubs in England and Wales; but rather the number of premises authorising the sale or supply of alcohol by means of a premises licence or a club premises certificate. We understand that CGA Strategy, the pub and drinks market analyst, which tracks the pub closure rate on behalf of the British Beer and Pub Association, currently estimates that between 51 and 53 pubs a week are closing. At 53 per week, the pub closure level would equate to around 2,750 per year. Source

Let's run with the figure of 57,500 in 2007. At a rate of 4.78% of closures per year, the last one will close in 2244. Given that, to adapt the joke about the two Jews on a desert island joke, one needs to have a pub one does not go to, it is worse - there will only be one by 2223. We will be down to four figures by 2043 (which I *might* live to see), and three figures by 2090. If the rate continues to fall at 2,750 per year, the End of Days comes in 2027.

If this terrible set of events is not to come to pass, 'think globally, drink locally'.


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