Another look at the Knesset results
Having an unhealthy level of interest in matters psephological, I have had a look at Knesset election results since 1949 (all figures taken from Wikipedia, which I hope I can trust) and had a go at charting seats won by the leading political parties. Given that Israeli political parties like splitting, winning big for an election and then disappearing, there are issues with continuity, but there is the certainty that at any election there will be a left Zionist party, heirs to Herzl, Ben Gurion and the other founding fathers (and mothers) - Mapai / Labour, a right or Revisionist Zionist party, heirs to Jabotinsky and Begin - Herut / Likud, a far left party - Mapam / Meretz and at least one major party that is deeply Orthodox. As such, I have attempted to pick my way through the labyrinth of splits, hissy fits, renamings and so forth in order to show how the state of the parties has changed over 60 years.
The breakthrough of Yisrael Beitenu has been treated as one of the major themes of coverage outside Israel, along with the eclipse of the Labour party. However, YB was fairly well placed last time, and Labour has been in decline since the 60s. Equally, Likud's results were its second weakest in 40 years. The far left Mapam / Meretz grouping appears to be heading for oblivion, while Shas, the Sephardic Orthodox party is treading water. The National Religious Party appears to have a more fluid electoral position than one might have thought, and it is tempting to suggest that YB has taken votes from it this time round. What is also evident is the inability of either Likud or Kadima (or once upon a time, Labour) to reach the 61 seat mark by allying with a few small parties, and even a two party grand coalition would not have a majority now, but would have to be Likud/Kadima/Labour. Labour /Likud had a combined 95 seats in '81, whereas Likud/Kadima/Labour now muster 68 seats between them.
I might add in the Arab parties later.
And now in mono for Geoff and anyone else who is colour blind:
The breakthrough of Yisrael Beitenu has been treated as one of the major themes of coverage outside Israel, along with the eclipse of the Labour party. However, YB was fairly well placed last time, and Labour has been in decline since the 60s. Equally, Likud's results were its second weakest in 40 years. The far left Mapam / Meretz grouping appears to be heading for oblivion, while Shas, the Sephardic Orthodox party is treading water. The National Religious Party appears to have a more fluid electoral position than one might have thought, and it is tempting to suggest that YB has taken votes from it this time round. What is also evident is the inability of either Likud or Kadima (or once upon a time, Labour) to reach the 61 seat mark by allying with a few small parties, and even a two party grand coalition would not have a majority now, but would have to be Likud/Kadima/Labour. Labour /Likud had a combined 95 seats in '81, whereas Likud/Kadima/Labour now muster 68 seats between them.I might add in the Arab parties later.
And now in mono for Geoff and anyone else who is colour blind:
Labels: Elections, fun with statistics, Israel, psephology
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on Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 9:45 am.
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Being quite colour-blind, your diagram of the migration patterns of elephants on crack cocaine as plotted from orbit was very useful.
I'm guessing it was elephants as all the lines are grey to me (or what they tell me is grey).
Hahaha Thanks Mr C!
Happy to have been of service.
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