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Cause, effect and the Metropolitan Police

Here is the headline and opening paragraph of a press release at the Met's website:

"Easter operation stops club and bar shootings 28.03.08

The Met police have once again successfully tackled shootings in and around the capital's licensed premises, with the second rollout of a special anti-gun initiative, named Operation Argon".

That no-one got shot in a London bar over Easter is undoubtedly a good thing, but the detail would seem to suggest that the London's Finest have fallen for the post hoc ergo post propter hoc fallacy:

"Over the period of the operation, officers carried out 48 armed vehicle stops resulting in 15 arrests, for a range of offences including burglary, possession of with intent to supply of class A drugs, immigration and driving offences. A total of 83 clubs were contacted regarding their promotions during this operation and over 200 venues were risk assessed by Clubs and Vice".

Note, nothing about handguns, rifles, shotguns, AK-47s, or come to that, Nimitz-class aircraft carriers being intercepted.

I do wonder whether we can expect every non-crime to be hailed as a triumph for the Plod.



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OpenID lettersfromatory said... 8:48 am

They 'risk assessed' venues? Does that involve sampling the local produce to see if its safe?  



Blogger Novlangue said... 9:46 am

A pedant writes : One too many "post", mon vieux. Excellent diagnosis, though.

50 cent (in da club)  



Blogger Croydonian said... 10:09 am

LFT - all too likely.

N - Whoops....  



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