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Opinion polls

I rather like the one in today's Guardian: C 39, L 29, LD 22. A quick check on Baxter gives blue majority of 38. The map it generates shows Labour pretty well annihilated in England outside the major urban areas and the Nats doing quite well in Scotland and Wales.
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Blogger Rigger Mortice said... 9:34 am

and then in the real world......

the only way that will happen is with a 45% turnout.which,I hasten to add is a distinct possibility  

Blogger UK Daily Pundit said... 9:47 am

I think this is the Guardian doing what it can to see Blair off well before July next year. Having said that, I have been tipping Cameron to make a comeback sooner or later ........  

Blogger CityUnslicker said... 10:12 am

being even more machiallvellian....

...you will notice that this result shows John Hutton and John Cruddas losing their seats; but not the beloved Harriet Harman.  

Blogger istanbultory said... 10:14 am

Rumours of DC's declining popularity with the punters were much exaggerated of late. Even with the current polling results, the result would still be a hung parliament since Labour gains most from the distribution of parliamentary seats across the country. But it's an encouraging result. The tide has turned against Labour.  

Blogger Rigger Mortice said... 2:06 pm

the problme with extrapolating results from per centages is that it ignores some of the fundamentals of UK political life ie first past the post.

a 2% gain in votes for UKIP could cost the tories twenty or thirty 'should win' seats.and the lib dems,who,lets be honest are the main challengers in many urban seats to labour could well nip in the back door in a few places.

to put this 'veil' row in context,I see it as very much labour atempting to reconnect with the urban working and middle classes who have been pissed off with the wey they've played into the hands of muslim voters.

besides the labour party who have come out 'against' veils,DC looks wet.it may be part of his great plan,but I remani unconvinced.

Whilst Reid has been run down by a lot of politicos,the fact is that the people labour need to vote for them next time,like his spiel.  

Blogger Croydonian said... 2:15 pm

Rigger - all very true, but tell me there isn't a better way to spend five seconds than bashing in the figures and seeing Ruth Kelly predicted to lose her seat. Quite made my morning, that did.  

Anonymous verity said... 2:50 pm

I think no one outside Westminster Village was exactly thrilled with David Cameron. Some of us staggered away from the Tories immediately, but others were willing to give him a go. I think those are the ones who are now dropping away. They never actually liked him, but they gave him a chance. Now they've gone, there's no one left to support him except the hoodies, and as most of them can't read the words Polling Booth, I don't think he's even going to get their vote by a landslide.

They should dump Dave soonest.  

Blogger istanbultory said... 3:12 pm

Dump Dave and....stay in opposition. Bring back IDS, eh?  

Blogger Rigger Mortice said... 3:33 pm

dump dave,bring back basher  

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