And I thought the Boundary Commission moved slowly...
As every man, woman, child, dog and stick insect knows, the boundary commission is not very good at keeping up with population change at constituency level, and the average Labour seat has rather fewer people than Tory ones, but that is a tale for another day. Anyway, at least they make changes from time to time.
However, the French commissariat has decided that maybe, just maybe, it should have a look at French constituencies, for the first time since 1986. In that time the population has risen by nine million, or around 16%.
Le Figaro has some of the details, noting which departements have seen the greatest population falls and rises, although the government itself is being very cagey about practical seat redistribution. Among those departments etc where people are moving out are Paris, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Marne, Somme and Seine-maritime. Cross referencing those with a map of the 2007 second round results, Nord, Pas de Calais, Somme and Seine-maritime are comparative nests of Socialists.
As to the winners - Hérault (hi Mum), Haute-Garonne, Gironde, Gard, Vaucluse, Var, the two Savoys, Isère, Ain, Seine-et-Marne, Val-d'Oise - Haute Garonne, Gironde and Isère swing leftwards, owing to the impact of Toulouse, Bordeaux and Grenoble.
So, looking good for Sarko and the UMP next time round.
Libe has just put up a map, for those who like that sort of thing.
(I am fiddling around with some figures and aim to do a psephological post later on the prospects for the Labour hard and soft left if the next election is truly Year Zero)
However, the French commissariat has decided that maybe, just maybe, it should have a look at French constituencies, for the first time since 1986. In that time the population has risen by nine million, or around 16%.
Le Figaro has some of the details, noting which departements have seen the greatest population falls and rises, although the government itself is being very cagey about practical seat redistribution. Among those departments etc where people are moving out are Paris, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Marne, Somme and Seine-maritime. Cross referencing those with a map of the 2007 second round results, Nord, Pas de Calais, Somme and Seine-maritime are comparative nests of Socialists.
As to the winners - Hérault (hi Mum), Haute-Garonne, Gironde, Gard, Vaucluse, Var, the two Savoys, Isère, Ain, Seine-et-Marne, Val-d'Oise - Haute Garonne, Gironde and Isère swing leftwards, owing to the impact of Toulouse, Bordeaux and Grenoble.
So, looking good for Sarko and the UMP next time round.
Libe has just put up a map, for those who like that sort of thing.
(I am fiddling around with some figures and aim to do a psephological post later on the prospects for the Labour hard and soft left if the next election is truly Year Zero)
Labels: France, psephology, the Left
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on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 at 8:28 am.
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The BC is a disgrace. My dad wrote a Bow Group pamphlet on it in the 60s or 70s and re-reading it today you wouldn't know it was written such a long time ago. The wheels turn slowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwly.
The UK Boundary Commissions do the best job they can of keeping up with movements in electorate numbers, but as a review takes seven years and the time between them is now twelve years, we have almost reached the practical limit for reviewing them.
We certainly don't want to go to the US system of having the party in power, nationally or locally, draw up the boundaries.
Incidentally Zimbabwe reviews the boundaries before every election, while Zambia has had unchanged boundaries since 1991 with resultant massive disparities in constituency size.
David - Fair comment, it could be a lot worse. If you are /that/ David Boothroyd, many thanks for your invaluable election site.
Indeed things could be worse. But what sort of argument is "the Americans are worse" as a reason for not trying to make things **even** better.
No wonder it is a "psephological impossibility" for the Tories to win the next election...........
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