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The American update

Latest polling is looking none too good for the junior senator for New York. Harris figures show that Hillary Clinton manages to prompt very strong antipathy, with 39% of those polled ready to say that they definitely would not vote for her if the Dem's candidate. Her best showing based on gender demographics is 19% among single women.

Gen X voters (31-42, like much of my readership?) are the least hostile at 29% definite nots. 60% of the over 62s claim to9 be definite nots. Even 11% of Dems declare as definite nots.

Asked what they have against her, there is not much difference in the figures for her track record as First Lady or as a senator, or for her politics or her personality. Around a quarter strongly dislike all four. 15% claim to strongly like her opinions. The old show the greatest antipathy.

On the upside, she is seen to be highly intelligent (76%) and to have experience (49%). She would seem to have what I am going to call Coriolanus Syndrome: 52% agree that 'She does not appear to connect with people on a personal level'. 34% think otherwise.

More here, but the site requires registration.

This all rather confirms my long term conviction that she does not have a prayer of winning the presidency, and I do not think Obama has much of a chance either. Elsewhere, Bloomberg is pondering on running as an independent, apparently. The two are trading at 2.38 and 4.15 ish at Betfair. Odds on Gore are falling and lengthening for Edwards. Giuliani leads for the GOP, followed by McCain.

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Anonymous David Allen said... 11:31 am

Coriolana? Good to see that the blocks, stones and senseless things of the American public have at least got the sense to wise up to this poisonous old broad. I can only hope that Obama beats her to the Democratic nomination. If she is the Dem.s' candidate in the final round, she will surely lose, and we'll have to endure she and her mates on The Guardian blaming it all on some 'vast rightwing conspiracy'. God forbid, she might even make the sequel to 'An Inconvenient Truth' and bore us all to death for years afterwards.  



Anonymous verity said... 2:51 pm

I cannot abide Hillary Clinton because she is a red-in-tooth-and-claw socialist. She tried to introduce a kind of NHS to the US, which is irrefutable proof of insanity. Also, she hadn't been elected to anything and developed her programme as an appointee of her husband, who doubtless wanted to keep her busy in the office.

On the other hand, her constituents think she has done a good job as their representative.

Obama is a non-starter. He is putting down his marker for 2016. No one is going to vote for anyone to be a nomination for the position of the world's most powerful person who has only been in national government for two years. Come on, folks!

If our luck holds, the Reps will walk 2008. A Rep governor with a solid record, preferably someone in his second term as governor, could walk it. Second term means the folks were pleased with his first term, a good endorsement.

Second, senators are representatives and have no experience as chief executives, so they don't really qualify. Running a state is good experience for a run at the presidency. Mr Bush was twice elected Governor of Texas.  



Anonymous David Allen said... 4:29 pm

So, Verity, don't you reckon much to Giuliani's chances? I thought he was ahead of McCain? Or is there a slew of photogenic governors waiting in the wings to storm thru?  



Blogger dearieme said... 5:18 pm

She'll get the Dem nomination and very possibly the Presidency. I wonder whether she'll have the courage to make Baghdad Osama her running mate?  



Anonymous verity said... 6:30 pm

Dearie Me - I think there is a likelihood that she will indeed get the Dem nomination on an American version of Buggins's turn. She has a steamroller effect and she has built up such a powerful engine, I seem to think that she's unstoppable, despite being loathed by almost everyone.

OTOH, we shouldn't discount the possibility of a sudden rebel movement springing up when they realise that Hillary will definitely lose the election for them.

They may draft in someone at the last minute. John Kerry, anyone?, but I really think, at this stage, Hillary is probably unstoppable. Plus, if nominated, she will have the advantage of having Bill campaign for her and whatever you think of him, he is a vote-winner.

Guiliani is admired, obviously, for his behaviour during the first few days after 9/11, and no one can take it away from him that he played his role well.

Is he presidential material? I don't think so. His lifestyle isn't popular with the folks in flyover country and he really does come across as a bit of a lefty. I have a feeling he's not sound on national defence, which will lose him the military vote and the votes of all families who have members of the military in them.

Jeb can't run this time. Too bad; he'd have the Mexican American vote sewn up. It looks as though McCain is losing support. I don't know enough about him, except that he is a vet, to comment. I think a two-term Rep governor will emerge. It better be someone strong and charismatic because if it's handled right, the Reps can walk this if Hillary's the candidate.  



Blogger Croydonian said... 10:47 pm

I think there will be enough rose tinted spectacles among Dem activists to get HC the nomination, whereupon it is very much the Republicans' race to lose. Shame Kemp is out of the hunt these days....  



Anonymous verity said... 2:36 am

Croydonian - I'm not sure that anyone has rose-tinted spectacles where Hillary is concerned. People running the Democratic Party are only too aware of Hillary's past. Whitewater. Her sudden, intuitive, sure hand in cattle futures. Vince Foster and maybe someone else who died in circumstances shrouded with unknowns.

She's like a tank at this point. I am certain her people have a lot of information about other candidates. And frankly, if I valued my life, I would not stand against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

It's very interesting, with Obama being the least interesting aspect. He is going nowhere in this race. No background. Just a junior senator. In other words, nada for now.

Also, what the British haven't understood is, just because his skin is black,that doesn't make him an Afro-American.

Afro-Americans have served three hundred years, most of that time in slavery. They developed, over those centuries, a unique culture.

To say black equates with black American is insultingly wrong. My guess, and I would bet actual money on it,is, black Americans will not take to this man because he has not paid his dues. And cannot. Because slavery is over. Therefore, he has to compete with every other American, without a free pass.

This won't get the nomination, but the knowledge of bodies, where buried, is likely to give Hillary that extra muscle.

Although other people may have similar data on her.

As of now, I think she'll get the nomination because her camp has a vast reservoir of information about people who may decide that a quiet life may be a prolonged life.  



Anonymous this guy said... 9:53 am

After the defeat in Iraq, and the constantly rising deficit, the Repubs haven't got a prayer. + many Americans don't share GWB's yobbo-indifference to what the world thinks of the US.

We shall see.

Thursday 29th  



Blogger Croydonian said... 2:28 pm

Fred Thompson is pondering a run. I rather like Hollywood Republicans, and they are good at winning.  



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