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Heads on the block this week

Fiddling around with Baxter and the yougov figures of C - 39, L - 32 and LD - 17, the following 'names' would lose their seats, based on uniform national swing etc etc:

LD - Kramer, Gidley, Taylor, Cable, Oaten and Laws

L - Kelly, Follett, Glenda Jackson

In terms of seats, this takes the Tories from 198 to 317 and leaves them 7 short of a majority. Labour drops from 356 to 279 and the LDs suffer a collapse from 62 to 18. In geographic terms this would mean just two LD's and 19 Labour MPs south of a line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, excluding London.


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Blogger Ellee Seymour said... 10:20 am

I wish I was as good as figures and data as you are. Yes, these figures are very encouraging, but there is still a long way to go and you can never assume things will work out this way and take anything for granted.  

Blogger Croydonian said... 10:25 am

All very true, but it is fun to fiddle around with the calculator. I've always been one for electoral wonkery and have election result clippings (especially maps....) going back to about '87 hidden away somewhere.

French results coverage is especially entertaining as they give breakdowns to parish level. It could be quite weird being in my ex-wife's village knowing that there were x number of Trotsktyites, X number of FN'ers and so forth.  

Anonymous rigger mortice said... 11:49 am

it is interesting but I fear the Lib Dem losses would not be as large purely because of the fact that once they're in they're a devil to unseat because they work so hard and they do tend to be more local than the Tories,which matters in marginals.

Aslo,none of the polls factor in the localised protest voting for UKIP/BNP which may cost us seats..

BTW Oaten is sure to get whooped if he stands.Or am I wrong?  

Blogger Croydonian said... 11:57 am

Rigger - I'm sure you are right, but I just enjoy typing out the names.....

Oaten has effectively said that he won't be standing at the next election, which shows a rare outbreak of common sense on his part.

As to UKIP, I think they are a busted flush, and judging from the local elections etc the BNP takes more votes from Labour.  

Anonymous cb said... 11:58 am

Please remember, that Baxter is a much too crude instrument to use to make predictions on individual seats. You can produce somekind of national prediction on how many seats will change hands, but you can't use it to predict which seats will change hands. This is because the swing will not be the same in all the seats, local factors will influence the outcome.  

Anonymous rigger mortice said... 3:29 pm

cheers CB

fair point on the BNP croydonian.I know of several lifelong labour supporters who went for the BNP recently.But UKIP did do us for a few seats last time and as long as they're standing,tehy're a threat because the very people who least approve of DC are the ones most likely to vote UKIP.

On Oaten,that is a relief but the prospect of him pouring his heart out for years to anyone who'll listen makes me feel ill.  

Anonymous Anonymous said... 3:51 am

Have you considered joining the Liberal Views forum? There you could discuss for instance this kind of matters with liberal-minded people from all the parties.  

Blogger Croydonian said... 8:21 am

Anon - thanks for the tip, I'll have a look.

Any chance of using a pseudonym when you post so that I can tell you from other anons? I like to be able to put a name to those folk who take the time to post.  

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